Loekasjenka's maskerade

Strategische narratieven van Belarussische onafhankelijkheid (1994-2023)

Samenvatting

This article analyzes how Belarus under Alexandr Lukachenko has used strategic narratives as instruments of regime survival between 1994 and 2023. Applying Mearsheimer’s offensive realism and Roselle, Miskimmon and O’Loughlin’s narrative framework, it traces shifts from early equidistant neutrality to post-Crimea controlled solidarity, the collapse of ambiguity during the 2020 protests, and eventual alignment with Russia after the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. System, identity, and issue narratives were recalibrated at each stage to project stability, externalize blame, and simulate consent in the absence of democratic legitimacy. While these discursive maneuvers allowed the regime to postpone collapse and maintain internal control, they also deepened structural dependence on Russia. The Belarusian case illustrates how weaker authoritarian states rely on narrative power as a substitute for both soft and hard power—yet in doing so risk eroding the very sovereignty and control they seek to defend.